Rural Broadband Associated with Attracting and Retaining Millennials and Percent of Children Under 5, but not Population Growth

Aug. 30, 2018 | Nebraska Broadband News

By Anne Byers, Nebraska Information Technology Commission

“Without broadband, our community won’t grow.” I often hear comments like this from local community leaders. But does greater broadband availability lead to population growth in rural areas?

Recent research by Roberto Gallardo, Robert Bell, and Norman Jackni found that broadband availability is associated with attracting and retaining millennials but not population growth in rural counties. Does this hold true for Nebraska? I took a look at the data to find out.

Very few rural counties in Nebraska showed population growth between 2010 and 2017. However, a significant number of rural counties showed population growth between 2016 and 2017. In order to see if there was an association between broadband availability and population growth in rural Nebraska counties, I ranked Nebraska counties (excluding the state’s 12 largest counties with populations over 25,000) by broadband availability and split them into 4 groups or quartiles. The % of counties experiencing population growth between 2016 and 2017 was calculated for each quartile.

Half (50%) of counties in the top 25% (first quartile and 45.0% of counties in the second quartile grew. In comparison, 40.0% of counties in the third quartile grew, and 47.6% of counties in the bottom 25% (fourth quartile) grew. Based on the data, it would be a stretch to conclude that broadband availability is associated with population growth in rural Nebraska counties. See the following chart and table.

But do rural counties in Nebraska with greater broadband availability have more millennials? The U.S. Census Bureau’s QuickFacts did not include an estimate for the percentage of young adults. The percent of persons under 5 years is listed, however. Since the young adults are more likely than older adults to have young children, the percent of children under 5 may be an indicator of how well a county is attracting and retaining young adults.

Using the same methodology used above, I found that rural counties in Nebraska with widespread broadband availability have a higher percentage of young children than counties with more limited broadband availability. Children under five years of age comprised 6.1% of the population of small Nebraska counties ranked in the top 25% (first quartile) for broadband availability, compared to 5.7% of the population of the small Nebraska counties in the bottom 25% (fourth quartile). This finding seems to support the findings of Roberto Gallardo, Robert Bell, and Norman Jackni. (See the following chart and table.)

What Counties Do We Consider Rural in This Analysis? The Census Bureau classifies a number of counties that most Nebraskans consider rural as metropolitan or micropolitan because of their proximity to larger communities. Some of these counties have fewer than 8,000 residents. Rather than using the Census Bureau classification, I looked at counties with populations of less than 25,000. This eliminated 12 counties including the state’s metropolitan areas and regional trade centers. These 12 counties are Douglas, Lancaster, Sarpy, Hall, Buffalo, Dodge, Scotts Bluff, Lincoln, Madison, Platte, Adams, and Cass Counties.